The Southwest monsoon is officially drawing to a close over much of India, but the retreat is being marked by troubling data on rainfall shortages. According to the latest assessments from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the 2025 monsoon season is likely to end with an overall rainfall deficit of approximately 10 percent compared to the long-term average, a figure that carries serious implications for farming communities and reservoir levels across the subcontinent.
Fourteen states have been among the hardest hit, reporting rainfall shortfalls exceeding 20 percent during the monsoon period. These deficit figures were compiled as the system weakened and began moving out of the northern and northwestern regions, leaving behind dry soils and stressed agricultural sectors. The IMD typically declares the monsoon withdrawal complete when rainfall activity recedes from Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and the upper Gangetic plains.
A monsoon deficit of this magnitude is particularly concerning because a substantial portion of India's agricultural output depends on timely and adequate rainfall. Crops such as kharif staples – including rice, soybean, cotton, and oilseeds – are sensitive to both the timing of rainfall distribution and total accumulation. When large swaths of the country see deficits above 20 percent, yield reductions become likely, which can push up food prices and affect rural incomes.
The withdrawal phase itself is a normal part of the monsoon cycle. The moisture-laden winds typically start retreating from northwest India around late September, gradually moving out of central and eastern regions through October. However, the pace and pattern of withdrawal can vary from year to year, and in some cases, delayed or irregular withdrawal has led to prolonged dry spells or unexpected spells of rain in areas expecting relief.
Water resource managers are now closely monitoring reservoir levels, as lower-than-expected monsoon rainfall means fewer reservoirs are filled to their operational capacity. This could affect irrigation availability for the rabi cropping season, which depends heavily on stored water in many regions.
Meteorologists will continue tracking pre-monsoon systems and western disturbances that may bring limited rainfall to parts of north India in the coming weeks before winter sets in.
