Houthi militiamen in Yemen have moved aggressively toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow maritime corridor that channels roughly 10 to 12 per cent of global container traffic and a significant share of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Their advance has reignited fears that the chokepoint — already rocked by attacks on commercial vessels since late 2023 — could slip further from the control of any stable authority and become a de facto Houthi stronghold.
For India, the implications are immediate and costly. A large portion of the country's crude oil imports and critical trade shipments pass through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz corridor. If the Houthis tighten their grip on Bab el-Mandeb, shipping companies will likely continue diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding thousands of kilometres and weeks to journey times. Freight and insurance premiums are expected to climb further, squeezing margins for Indian importers and exporters alike.
Beyond the trade disruption, the group's evolving military posture is raising alarms across the region. Defence analysts note that the Houthis are increasingly integrating artificial intelligence into their weapons systems — including drone targeting, precision-guided munitions, and automated reconnaissance — making them a more sophisticated threat than in previous years. This technological leap complicates efforts by regional navies and international coalitions to protect shipping lanes.
Pakistan, meanwhile, finds itself caught in an awkward strategic position. Its deepening defence ties with nations participating in Red Sea security initiatives put it in a delicate diplomatic spot as Houthi capabilities grow. Islamabad has so far sought a calibrated approach, balancing its relationships with Gulf neighbours and Iran while avoiding overt alignment with any military coalition operating in the waters.
India's naval presence in the region has expanded significantly, with warships regularly deployed for anti-piracy and freedom-of-navigation missions. Yet officials acknowledge that no single navy can secure the strait alone, and a coordinated international response remains the only viable long-term strategy.
